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QuotesOct 16

Scorecard

The record behind every number on this site: what the Dew Point is made of, the pulse beside it, when anything moved and why, and how the tracked names have done since the SpaceX listing.

THE DEW POINT LADDER

34/100 · 13 done · 2 in progress · last change Jun 30, 2026

Like the Doomsday Clock, pointed the other way. Each rung has an editorial weight, published here to be argued with, and a dated, sourced status. Done rungs count in full, rungs in progress count in part. The number moves only when a rung flips.

Band 1 · Access to orbit0 to 31
Reusable, routine, affordable launch and a working commercial economy in low Earth orbit.
Commercial cargo flies to the ISS
2
An orbital-class booster is reflown
done · Mar 30, 2017 · SpaceX, Falcon 9 ↗
4
Commercial crew carries astronauts to orbit
done · May 30, 2020 · NASA, Commercial Crew Program ↗
4
A broadband megaconstellation serves customers
done · Oct 26, 2020 · Starlink ↗
4
All-private crews fly to orbit
done · Sep 15, 2021 · SpaceX, Inspiration4 ↗
1
One provider launches more than 100 times in a year
done · Dec 31, 2023 · SpaceX, Launches ↗
2
A product made in orbit returns to Earth
done · Feb 21, 2024 · Varda Space ↗
1
A commercial spacewalk
done · Sep 12, 2024 · Polaris Program ↗
1
A super-heavy booster is caught and reflown
done · Oct 13, 2024 · SpaceX, Starship ↗
2
A second heavy-lift reusable rocket reaches orbit
done · Jan 16, 2025 · Blue Origin, New Glenn ↗
2
Satellites connect directly to ordinary phones
done · Jul 23, 2025 · Starlink Direct to Cell ↗
1
A fully reusable super-heavy vehicle completes an orbital mission and recovers both stages
in progress · May 22, 2026 · SpaceX, Starship ↗ · Flights are recovering the booster and landing the ship at sea; full recovery of both on one orbital mission is the rung.
2 of 4
Propellant transferred between two vehicles in orbit
pending · NASA, Human Landing System ↗ · The gate for every Moon and Mars mission that follows.
0 of 3
Band 2 · Cislunar economy31 to 60
People and cargo moving to and from the Moon on a schedule, with stations, power and industry in orbit.
Commercial landers deliver payloads to the Moon
done · Mar 2, 2025 · NASA, CLPS ↗ · IM-1 in 2024, Blue Ghost in 2025.
3
Crew flies around the Moon
done · Apr 1, 2026 · NASA, Artemis II ↗
4
A commercial space station hosts a crew
in progress · Jun 30, 2026 · NASA, Commercial LEO Destinations ↗ · Axiom, Vast and Orbital Reef are building; none has hosted a crew yet.
1 of 3
Crew lands on the Moon again
pending · NASA, Artemis III ↗ · Re-scoped to an Orion and lander docking test, targeted mid-2027; the landing follows.
0 of 6
Cargo landers fly to the Moon on a schedule
pending · NASA, CLPS ↗
0 of 2
A station operates in lunar orbit
0 of 3
Power and resource extraction demonstrated on the surface
0 of 3
People live on the Moon for months at a time
0 of 5
Band 3 · Mars transit60 to 85
Vehicles, propellant and life support proven for the trip to Mars and back, then the first crews.
A crew-capable vehicle lands on Mars uncrewed
pending · SpaceX, Mars ↗
0 of 8
Propellant is made from Martian resources
pending · NASA, MOXIE (oxygen demonstrated 2021) ↗ · MOXIE made oxygen; propellant at scale is the rung.
0 of 5
Something launched from Mars returns to Earth
0 of 2
The first crew lands on Mars
0 of 10
Band 4 · Mars settlement85 to 100
A permanent presence that makes its own propellant, food and parts. 100 is a self-sustaining city.
A permanent crewed base on Mars
pending
0 of 8
Return propellant produced at scale on Mars
pending
0 of 4
A settlement that grows its own food and makes its own parts
pending
0 of 3
WHAT MOVES IT NEXT
A fully reusable super-heavy vehicle completes an orbital mission and recovers both stages+2
Propellant transferred between two vehicles in orbit+3
Crew lands on the Moon again+6

DEW PULSE

Oct 16, 2026, 9:50 AM ET
236launches to orbit, worldwide, so far in 2026, up 2% on the same date in 2025
Launches to orbit per month in 2026, complete months: Jan 21, Feb 18, Mar 29, Apr 29, May 22, Jun 29, Jul 26, Aug 25, Sep 27Jan 26: 21 to orbitFeb 26: 18 to orbitMar 26: 29 to orbitApr 26: 29 to orbitMay 26: 22 to orbitJun 26: 29 to orbitJul 26: 26 to orbitAug 26: 25 to orbitSep 26: 27 to orbit

243 orbital attempts since Jan 1, 7 failed or partly failed. By this date in 2025: 232 reached orbit of 238 attempts; 2025 ended with 315. Oct so far: 10.

The Dew Point is the ladder: it moves only when a rung flips, a few times a year, and says how far we have climbed. The Dew Pulse is the heartbeat beside it: every launch that has reached orbit anywhere in the world since January 1, counted from Launch Library and refreshed every six hours. It climbs through the year and starts again at zero every January 1, like a season's tally. It is a measurement, not a judgement. It says how fast the world is getting to orbit, which is the floor every rung on the ladder stands on. Suborbital flights are not counted. Source: Launch Library 2 (The Space Devs). How it is counted, rule by rule, is on the Methodology page; the ladder itself, and every move it has made, is on the scorecard.

LEDGER

Every change to a conviction score, velocity, signal, ownership or the Dew Point, newest first, with the reason it moved. Nothing here is edited after the fact; a correction is a new line.

Sep 21, 2026
Stoke Space · Conviction score: 45 to 50
A $1 billion Series E, $2.3 billion raised in total, materially de-risks the path to a first flight of Nova. Stoke Space ↗
Sep 21, 2026
Relativity Space · Conviction score: 52 to 55
NASA added Terran R to its Launch Services II contract, a credential before the rocket has flown. NASA ↗
Sep 21, 2026
Rocket Factory Augsburg · Conviction score: 35 to 32
A vehicle problem found in pad testing cost the August launch window, and the rocket has still not flown. Advanced Television ↗
Sep 21, 2026
Blue Origin · Conviction score: 57 to 45
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: where it stands on the Dew Point ladder (68). Weakest: what it has done (15, from launches flown alone). Methodology ↗
Sep 21, 2026
Amazon · Conviction score: 44 to 46
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: its news in the Feed (62). Weakest: where it stands on the Dew Point ladder (30). Methodology ↗
Sep 21, 2026
NVIDIA · Conviction score: 56 to 60
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: what it has done (77, from revenue growth alone). Weakest: how much of the space economy it covers (45). Methodology ↗
Sep 21, 2026
AST SpaceMobile · Conviction score: 57 to 67
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: what it has done (80, from revenue growth alone). Weakest: how much of the space economy it covers (40). Methodology ↗
Sep 21, 2026
Iridium · Conviction score: 30 to 29
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: its news in the Feed (47). Weakest: what it has done (7, from revenue growth alone). Methodology ↗
Sep 21, 2026
Intuitive Machines · Conviction score: 66 to 69
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: what it has done (80, from revenue growth alone). Weakest: how much of the space economy it covers (50). Methodology ↗
Sep 21, 2026
AeroVironment · Conviction score: 63 to 44
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: how much of the space economy it covers (65). Weakest: what it has done (31, from revenue growth alone). Methodology ↗
Sep 8, 2026
Rolls-Royce SMR · Ownership: Public/Div to Private
The row carried ownership Public/Div with ticker N/A, the only company here where those two disagree. Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd is a subsidiary and is not separately listed; the RYCEY line is the parent, Rolls-Royce Holdings, which this site does not cover. Correcting the label, not the company. Rolls-Royce SMR ↗
Sep 4, 2026
AST SpaceMobile · Execution velocity: Caution to On Track
Three satellites reached orbit in August. Caution described a company that had not yet flown the hardware. SpaceDew signal, 2026-08-05 ↗
Sep 4, 2026
Blue Origin · Execution velocity: Caution to On Track
Caution was set against a history of schedule slips. Winning a NASA Mars contract in open competition is the opposite signal. SpaceDew signal, 2026-09-01 ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Lockheed Martin · Cap tier: Mega to Large
Set from the live market cap of $125.7B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Redwire Space · Cap tier: Small to Mid
Set from the live market cap of $2.6B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Rocket Lab · Cap tier: Mid to Large
Set from the live market cap of $37.4B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Palantir · Cap tier: Large to Mega
Set from the live market cap of $432.4B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
BWX Technologies · Cap tier: Mid to Large
Set from the live market cap of $14.8B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Oklo · Cap tier: Small to Mid
Set from the live market cap of $7.2B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Nano Nuclear Energy · Cap tier: Micro to Small
Set from the live market cap of $0.9B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Teradyne · Cap tier: Mid to Large
Set from the live market cap of $52.4B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Symbotic · Cap tier: Small to Large
Set from the live market cap of $23.0B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Vertex Pharma · Cap tier: Mega to Large
Set from the live market cap of $121.1B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Ginkgo Bioworks · Cap tier: Micro to Small
Set from the live market cap of $0.5B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
BlackSky · Cap tier: Micro to Small
Set from the live market cap of $0.9B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
IonQ · Cap tier: Small to Large
Set from the live market cap of $15.3B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
MP Materials · Cap tier: Small to Mid
Set from the live market cap of $9.6B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
AST SpaceMobile · Cap tier: Small to Large
Set from the live market cap of $21.7B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Intuitive Machines · Cap tier: Small to Mid
Set from the live market cap of $3.4B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
The Metals Company · Cap tier: Micro to Small
Set from the live market cap of $2.0B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Dew Point · Dew Point: 34 to 34
Now computed from the published milestone ladder (13 rungs done, 2 in progress, weights calibrated to the existing 34). The two formulas that nothing computed were removed. Value unchanged.
Sep 2, 2026
Blue Origin · Coverage: 1, 12 to 1, 9, 10, 12
Sector tags filled to match the Polymath definition: launch, Orbital Reef habitation, Blue Moon logistics.
Sep 2, 2026
Lockheed Martin · Coverage: 1, 12 to 1, 2, 10, 12
Sector tags filled: launch via ULA, command systems, Orion deep space.
Sep 2, 2026
Northrop Grumman · Coverage: 12 to 1, 9, 10, 12
Sector tags filled: boosters and Antares, HALO habitat, Cygnus logistics.
Sep 2, 2026
Amazon · Coverage: 12 to 6, 8, 12
Sector tags filled: AWS data infrastructure, Kuiper communications.
Sep 2, 2026
Redwire Space · Coverage: 12 to 5, 7, 9, 12
Sector tags filled: PIL-BOX pharma, in-space manufacturing, ROSA arrays and infrastructure.
Aug 30, 2026
SpaceX · Ownership: Private to Public
Listed on Nasdaq as SPCX on 2026-06-12 at $135 a share, the largest IPO in history; the site had carried it as private for 78 days. CNBC ↗
Aug 30, 2026
Blue Origin · Execution velocity: On Track to Caution
New Glenn's second stage failed to reach orbit on 2026-04-19 and a booster exploded on the LC-36 pad on 2026-05-28. CNBC ↗
Aug 30, 2026
Helion Energy · Coverage: Mid to Large
Cap tier raised after the $15.5B Series G in June 2026.
Aug 19, 2026
Dew Point · Dew Point: none to 34
Baseline. Set in February 2026 with the first 43 conviction scores; labelled editorial from the 2026-08-18 truth reset onward.

0 of 50 conviction scores have not been reviewed in 2 months or more. When they are re-reviewed, each change lands here with its reason.

SINCE THE SPACEX LISTING

Each public name's close on the first session on or after the SpaceX listing day, against its latest close. Price only, no dividends, not a recommendation.

Close history is loading, or not available yet.

Source: daily closes in /data/closes.json (Finnhub from Aug 19, 2026). Intraday quotes as of 2026-10-16.

POSITIONS

No positions are disclosed on this page yet. When they are, they will be listed here with the date they were taken or closed, because a score with the author's money behind it reads differently from one without. Nothing on SpaceDew is financial advice.

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