The record behind every number on this site: what the Dew Point is made of, the pulse beside it, when anything moved and why, and how the tracked names have done since the SpaceX listing.
Like the Doomsday Clock, pointed the other way. Each rung has an editorial weight, published here to be argued with, and a dated, sourced status. Done rungs count in full, rungs in progress count in part. The number moves only when a rung flips.
Band 1 · Access to orbit0 to 31
Reusable, routine, affordable launch and a working commercial economy in low Earth orbit.
A fully reusable super-heavy vehicle completes an orbital mission and recovers both stages
in progress · May 22, 2026 · SpaceX, Starship ↗ · Flights are recovering the booster and landing the ship at sea; full recovery of both on one orbital mission is the rung.
2 of 4
Propellant transferred between two vehicles in orbit
A permanent presence that makes its own propellant, food and parts. 100 is a self-sustaining city.
A permanent crewed base on Mars
pending
0 of 8
Return propellant produced at scale on Mars
pending
0 of 4
A settlement that grows its own food and makes its own parts
pending
0 of 3
WHAT MOVES IT NEXT
A fully reusable super-heavy vehicle completes an orbital mission and recovers both stages+2
Propellant transferred between two vehicles in orbit+3
Crew lands on the Moon again+6
DEW PULSE
Sep 8, 2026 20:53 UTC
320launches to orbit, worldwide, in the last 365 days, up 9% on the year before
Sep 25Aug 26
330 orbital attempts since 2025-09-08, 10 failed or partly failed. The year before: 294 reached orbit of 302 attempts. Sep so far: 6.
The Dew Point is the ladder: it moves only when a rung flips, a few times a year, and says how far we have climbed. The Dew Pulse is the heartbeat beside it: every launch that reached orbit anywhere in the world over the trailing year, counted from Launch Library and refreshed every six hours. It is a measurement, not a judgement. It says how fast the world is getting to orbit, which is the floor every rung on the ladder stands on. Suborbital flights are not counted. Source: Launch Library 2 (The Space Devs). How it is counted, rule by rule, is on the Methodology page; the ladder itself, and every move it has made, is on the scorecard.
LEDGER
Every change to a conviction score, velocity, signal, ownership or the Dew Point, newest first, with the reason it moved. Nothing here is edited after the fact; a correction is a new line.
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 89 (2 lenses: launches, revenue), Milestones 95, Signals 65, Coverage 68, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 42 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 30, Signals 56, Coverage 65, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 41 (2 lenses: wins, launches), Milestones 68, Signals 70, Coverage 65, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 47 (2 lenses: launches, revenue), Milestones 70, Signals 32, Coverage 65, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 30 (2 lenses: launches, revenue), Milestones 68, Signals 50, Coverage 65, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 40 (2 lenses: wins, revenue), Milestones 30, Signals 63, Coverage 55, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 83 (3 lenses: wins, launches, revenue), Milestones 54, Signals 99, Coverage 30, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 77 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 35, Coverage 45, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 48 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 51, Signals 50, Coverage 45, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 71 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 50, Coverage 55, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 50 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 20, Signals 47, Coverage 55, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 33 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 50, Coverage 55, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 40 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 50, Coverage 60, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 38 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 30, Signals 44, Coverage 60, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 0 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 8, Signals 44, Coverage 60, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 28 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 50, Coverage 40, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 80 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 8, Signals 50, Coverage 40, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 73 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 50, Coverage 70, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 57 (2 lenses: wins, revenue), Milestones 52, Signals 78, Coverage 40, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 7 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 50, Coverage 40, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 73 (2 lenses: wins, revenue), Milestones 65, Signals 64, Coverage 50, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 66 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 50, Coverage 58, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 0 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 55, Signals 50, Coverage 45, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 80 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 50, Coverage 65, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 73 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 45, Signals 50, Coverage 70, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 0 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 8, Signals 50, Coverage 30, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 0 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 30, Signals 50, Coverage 40, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 0 (1 lens: revenue), Milestones 8, Signals 50, Coverage 30, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Computed under RFC-006 from the 2026-09-08 snapshot: Execution 49 (2 lenses: launches, revenue), Milestones 48, Signals 50, Coverage 45, weighted 0.40/0.25/0.20/0.15. Replaces the reviewed editorial score; the formula and every input are on the Methodology page. Methodology ↗
Coverage added. The largest operating commercial Earth-observation constellation, imaging the whole landmass daily, with hyperspectral added by Tanager. Anchored above BlackSky at 49, the direct peer at an eighth of the market cap, and just above Iridium at 58 on growth; below Intuitive Machines at 65, which is on the lunar path where this is Earth infrastructure.
Coverage added. Starlab is a NASA Commercial LEO Destinations awardee, which puts it directly on the path this site scores for. Anchored below Sierra Space at 62 and Axiom at 67, both further funded and further along, and well above Stoke at 45.
Coverage added. Uncrewed systems with real defence demand, and space and directed-energy exposure through BlueHalo. Anchored just below Northrop at 56: comparable defence exposure and better growth, materially less space in the mix.
Coverage added. United States uranium production plus rare earth separation at White Mesa, feeding the nuclear layer this site already scores highly and the magnet supply chain. Anchored just below MP Materials at 50, the direct analogue, which is larger and further along in separation at scale.
Coverage added. Commercial service has been paused since 2024 pending the Delta class vehicles, with heavy cash burn and a dilution history, and suborbital tourism is only marginally on the multiplanetary path. Anchored level with Ginkgo at 36 and above The Metals Company at 33.
Coverage added. Small satellite manufacturing and data services at micro-cap scale with a dilutive financing history. Anchored just below AstroForge at 38, which is speculative but has a clearer single thesis.
Coverage added. Orbital transfer vehicles are genuinely on-path, which is the only thing holding this above the floor against repeated dilution and a going-concern history. Anchored one above The Metals Company at 33.
The row carried ownership Public/Div with ticker N/A, the only company here where those two disagree. Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd is a subsidiary and is not separately listed; the RYCEY line is the parent, Rolls-Royce Holdings, which this site does not cover. Correcting the label, not the company. Rolls-Royce SMR ↗
Agreed to acquire Iridium for $54 a share, about $8.0B enterprise value, and cleared the HSR waiting period on 12 August with the S-4 and FCC transfer applications filed. Vertical integration from launch through an operating constellation is the thesis this site scores for. Rocket Lab investor relations, 2026-08-13 ↗
Being acquired by Rocket Lab at $54 a share, a 173% premium to the February close of $19.77, with HSR expired and FCC applications filed. Selling a working constellation into a launch company at that premium is execution; note the score now tracks deal completion as much as operations. Rocket Lab investor relations, 2026-08-13 ↗
BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 reached orbit on 5 August, a milestone hit on the constellation the thesis depends on, and three insiders bought in the 45 days to 3 September. The shares are down 41% since the February review; this score weighs execution and milestones, not the share price. SpaceDew signal, 2026-08-05, and Form 4 filings ↗
Selected by NASA as the Mars telecommunications network provider on 1 September, a roughly $700M award taken ahead of Rocket Lab. A NASA selection for Mars infrastructure is the clearest read on this thesis available for a private company. SpaceDew signal, 2026-09-01 ↗
Sep 4, 2026
Blue Origin · Execution velocity: Caution to On Track
Caution was set against a history of schedule slips. Winning a NASA Mars contract in open competition is the opposite signal. SpaceDew signal, 2026-09-01 ↗
Now computed from the published milestone ladder (13 rungs done, 2 in progress, weights calibrated to the existing 34). The two formulas that nothing computed were removed. Value unchanged.
Cap tier raised after the $15.5B Series G in June 2026.
Aug 19, 2026
Dew Point · Dew Point: none to 34
Baseline. Set in February 2026 with the first 43 conviction scores; labelled editorial from the 2026-08-18 truth reset onward.
0 of 50 conviction scores have not been reviewed in 4 months or more. When they are re-reviewed, each change lands here with its reason.
SINCE THE SPACEX LISTING
Each public name's close on the first session on or after the SpaceX listing day, against its latest close. Price only, no dividends, not a recommendation.
Close history is loading, or not available yet.
Source: daily closes in /data/closes.json (Finnhub from Aug 19, 2026). Intraday quotes as of 2026-09-08.
POSITIONS
No positions are disclosed on this page yet. When they are, they will be listed here with the date they were taken or closed, because a score with the author's money behind it reads differently from one without. Nothing on SpaceDew is financial advice.