The record behind every number on this site: what the Dew Point is made of, the pulse beside it, when anything moved and why, and how the tracked names have done since the SpaceX listing.
THE DEW POINT LADDER
34/100 · 13 done · 2 in progress · last change Jun 30, 2026
Like the Doomsday Clock, pointed the other way. Each rung has an editorial weight, published here to be argued with, and a dated, sourced status. Done rungs count in full, rungs in progress count in part. The number moves only when a rung flips.
Band 1 · Access to orbit0 to 31
Reusable, routine, affordable launch and a working commercial economy in low Earth orbit.
A fully reusable super-heavy vehicle completes an orbital mission and recovers both stages
in progress · May 22, 2026 · SpaceX, Starship ↗ · Flights are recovering the booster and landing the ship at sea; full recovery of both on one orbital mission is the rung.
2 of 4
Propellant transferred between two vehicles in orbit
A permanent presence that makes its own propellant, food and parts. 100 is a self-sustaining city.
A permanent crewed base on Mars
pending
0 of 8
Return propellant produced at scale on Mars
pending
0 of 4
A settlement that grows its own food and makes its own parts
pending
0 of 3
WHAT MOVES IT NEXT
A fully reusable super-heavy vehicle completes an orbital mission and recovers both stages+2
Propellant transferred between two vehicles in orbit+3
Crew lands on the Moon again+6
DEW PULSE
Oct 16, 2026, 9:50 AM ET
236launches to orbit, worldwide, so far in 2026, up 2% on the same date in 2025
Jan 26Dec 26
243 orbital attempts since Jan 1, 7 failed or partly failed. By this date in 2025: 232 reached orbit of 238 attempts; 2025 ended with 315. Oct so far: 10.
The Dew Point is the ladder: it moves only when a rung flips, a few times a year, and says how far we have climbed. The Dew Pulse is the heartbeat beside it: every launch that has reached orbit anywhere in the world since January 1, counted from Launch Library and refreshed every six hours. It climbs through the year and starts again at zero every January 1, like a season's tally. It is a measurement, not a judgement. It says how fast the world is getting to orbit, which is the floor every rung on the ladder stands on. Suborbital flights are not counted. Source: Launch Library 2 (The Space Devs). How it is counted, rule by rule, is on the Methodology page; the ladder itself, and every move it has made, is on the scorecard.
LEDGER
Every change to a conviction score, velocity, signal, ownership or the Dew Point, newest first, with the reason it moved. Nothing here is edited after the fact; a correction is a new line.
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: where it stands on the Dew Point ladder (68). Weakest: what it has done (15, from launches flown alone). Methodology ↗
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: its news in the Feed (62). Weakest: where it stands on the Dew Point ladder (30). Methodology ↗
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: what it has done (77, from revenue growth alone). Weakest: how much of the space economy it covers (45). Methodology ↗
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: what it has done (80, from revenue growth alone). Weakest: how much of the space economy it covers (40). Methodology ↗
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: its news in the Feed (47). Weakest: what it has done (7, from revenue growth alone). Methodology ↗
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: what it has done (80, from revenue growth alone). Weakest: how much of the space economy it covers (50). Methodology ↗
Rescored on Sep 21, 2026 from the site's own feeds. Strongest: how much of the space economy it covers (65). Weakest: what it has done (31, from revenue growth alone). Methodology ↗
The row carried ownership Public/Div with ticker N/A, the only company here where those two disagree. Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd is a subsidiary and is not separately listed; the RYCEY line is the parent, Rolls-Royce Holdings, which this site does not cover. Correcting the label, not the company. Rolls-Royce SMR ↗
Three satellites reached orbit in August. Caution described a company that had not yet flown the hardware. SpaceDew signal, 2026-08-05 ↗
Sep 4, 2026
Blue Origin · Execution velocity: Caution to On Track
Caution was set against a history of schedule slips. Winning a NASA Mars contract in open competition is the opposite signal. SpaceDew signal, 2026-09-01 ↗
Now computed from the published milestone ladder (13 rungs done, 2 in progress, weights calibrated to the existing 34). The two formulas that nothing computed were removed. Value unchanged.
Cap tier raised after the $15.5B Series G in June 2026.
Aug 19, 2026
Dew Point · Dew Point: none to 34
Baseline. Set in February 2026 with the first 43 conviction scores; labelled editorial from the 2026-08-18 truth reset onward.
0 of 50 conviction scores have not been reviewed in 2 months or more. When they are re-reviewed, each change lands here with its reason.
SINCE THE SPACEX LISTING
Each public name's close on the first session on or after the SpaceX listing day, against its latest close. Price only, no dividends, not a recommendation.
Close history is loading, or not available yet.
Source: daily closes in /data/closes.json (Finnhub from Aug 19, 2026). Intraday quotes as of 2026-10-16.
POSITIONS
No positions are disclosed on this page yet. When they are, they will be listed here with the date they were taken or closed, because a score with the author's money behind it reads differently from one without. Nothing on SpaceDew is financial advice.