Scorecard
The record behind every editorial number on this site: what the Dew Point is made of, when anything moved and why, and how the tracked names have done since the SpaceX listing.
THE DEW POINT LADDER
34/100 · 13 done · 2 in progress · reviewed Sep 2026Like the Doomsday Clock, pointed the other way. Each rung has an editorial weight, published here to be argued with, and a dated, sourced status. Done rungs count in full, rungs in progress count in part. The number moves only when a rung flips.
Band 1 · Access to orbit0 to 31
Reusable, routine, affordable launch and a working commercial economy in low Earth orbit.
Commercial cargo flies to the ISS
done · May 25, 2012 · NASA, Commercial Resupply Services ↗
An orbital-class booster is reflown
done · Mar 30, 2017 · SpaceX, Falcon 9 ↗
Commercial crew carries astronauts to orbit
done · May 30, 2020 · NASA, Commercial Crew Program ↗
A broadband megaconstellation serves customers
done · Oct 26, 2020 · Starlink ↗
All-private crews fly to orbit
done · Sep 15, 2021 · SpaceX, Inspiration4 ↗
One provider launches more than 100 times in a year
done · Dec 31, 2023 · SpaceX, Launches ↗
A product made in orbit returns to Earth
done · Feb 21, 2024 · Varda Space ↗
A commercial spacewalk
done · Sep 12, 2024 · Polaris Program ↗
A super-heavy booster is caught and reflown
done · Oct 13, 2024 · SpaceX, Starship ↗
A second heavy-lift reusable rocket reaches orbit
done · Jan 16, 2025 · Blue Origin, New Glenn ↗
Satellites connect directly to ordinary phones
done · Jul 23, 2025 · Starlink Direct to Cell ↗
A fully reusable super-heavy vehicle completes an orbital mission and recovers both stages
in progress · May 22, 2026 · SpaceX, Starship ↗ · Flights are recovering the booster and landing the ship at sea; full recovery of both on one orbital mission is the rung.
Propellant transferred between two vehicles in orbit
pending · NASA, Human Landing System ↗ · The gate for every Moon and Mars mission that follows.
Band 2 · Cislunar economy31 to 60
People and cargo moving to and from the Moon on a schedule, with stations, power and industry in orbit.
Commercial landers deliver payloads to the Moon
done · Mar 2, 2025 · NASA, CLPS ↗ · IM-1 in 2024, Blue Ghost in 2025.
Crew flies around the Moon
done · Apr 1, 2026 · NASA, Artemis II ↗
A commercial space station hosts a crew
in progress · Jun 30, 2026 · NASA, Commercial LEO Destinations ↗ · Axiom, Vast and Orbital Reef are building; none has hosted a crew yet.
Crew lands on the Moon again
pending · NASA, Artemis III ↗ · Re-scoped to an Orion and lander docking test, targeted mid-2027; the landing follows.
Cargo landers fly to the Moon on a schedule
pending · NASA, CLPS ↗
A station operates in lunar orbit
pending · NASA, Gateway ↗
Power and resource extraction demonstrated on the surface
pending · NASA, Fission Surface Power ↗
People live on the Moon for months at a time
pending · NASA, Artemis ↗
Band 3 · Mars transit60 to 85
Vehicles, propellant and life support proven for the trip to Mars and back, then the first crews.
A crew-capable vehicle lands on Mars uncrewed
pending · SpaceX, Mars ↗
Propellant is made from Martian resources
pending · NASA, MOXIE (oxygen demonstrated 2021) ↗ · MOXIE made oxygen; propellant at scale is the rung.
Something launched from Mars returns to Earth
pending · NASA, Mars Sample Return ↗
The first crew lands on Mars
pending · NASA, Moon to Mars ↗
Band 4 · Mars settlement85 to 100
A permanent presence that makes its own propellant, food and parts. 100 is a self-sustaining city.
A permanent crewed base on Mars
pending
Return propellant produced at scale on Mars
pending
A settlement that grows its own food and makes its own parts
pending
WHAT MOVES IT NEXT
A fully reusable super-heavy vehicle completes an orbital mission and recovers both stages+2
Propellant transferred between two vehicles in orbit+3
Crew lands on the Moon again+6
LEDGER
Every change to a conviction score, velocity, signal, ownership or the Dew Point, newest first, with the reason it moved. Nothing here is edited after the fact; a correction is a new line.
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $125.7B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $2.6B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $37.4B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $432.4B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $14.8B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $7.2B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $0.9B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $52.4B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $23.0B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $121.1B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $0.5B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $0.9B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $15.3B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $9.6B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $21.7B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $3.4B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Set from the live market cap of $2.0B on 2026-09-02; the February seed had drifted. Finnhub via fundamentals.json ↗
Sep 2, 2026
Dew Point · Dew Point: 34 to 34
Now computed from the published milestone ladder (13 rungs done, 2 in progress, weights calibrated to the existing 34). The two formulas that nothing computed were removed. Value unchanged.
Sep 2, 2026
Sector tags filled to match the Polymath definition: launch, Orbital Reef habitation, Blue Moon logistics.
Sep 2, 2026
Sector tags filled: launch via ULA, command systems, Orion deep space.
Sep 2, 2026
Sector tags filled: boosters and Antares, HALO habitat, Cygnus logistics.
Sep 2, 2026
Sector tags filled: AWS data infrastructure, Kuiper communications.
Sep 2, 2026
Sector tags filled: PIL-BOX pharma, in-space manufacturing, ROSA arrays and infrastructure.
Aug 30, 2026
Aug 30, 2026
New Glenn's second stage failed to reach orbit on 2026-04-19 and a booster exploded on the LC-36 pad on 2026-05-28. CNBC ↗
Aug 30, 2026
Cap tier raised after the $15.5B Series G in June 2026.
Aug 19, 2026
Dew Point · Dew Point: none to 34
Baseline. Set in February 2026 with the first 43 conviction scores; labelled editorial from the 2026-08-18 truth reset onward.
38 of 43 conviction scores still carry their February 2026 review date. When they are re-reviewed, each change lands here with its reason.
SINCE THE SPACEX LISTING
Each public name's close on the first session on or after the SpaceX listing day, against its latest close. Price only, no dividends, not a recommendation.
Close history is loading, or not available yet.
Source: daily closes in /data/closes.json (Finnhub from Aug 19, 2026). Intraday quotes as of 2026-09-01.
POSITIONS
No positions are disclosed on this page yet. When they are, they will be listed here with the date they were taken or closed, because a score with the author's money behind it reads differently from one without. Nothing on SpaceDew is financial advice.